According to the weekly data of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, total foreign currency deposits decreased by 607 million dollars in the week of March 4, adjusted for the parity effect. Compared to the previous week, the increase in foreign currency deposits of real persons decreased by 518 million dollars, while foreign currency deposits of legal entities decreased by 89 million dollars.
In the same week, FX deposits of domestic residents decreased by 1.7 billion dollars from 215.8 billion dollars to 214.1 billion dollars. Weekly data on currency-protected deposits, which is one of the important data in terms of CBRT reserves, were also published. Accordingly, in the week of March 4, FX-protected deposits were recorded as 539.16 billion TRY. Last week, the total size of this instrument was announced as 520.14 billion TRY.
We think that factors such as the continuation of the trend of regular portfolio outflows and the lack of new foreign money inflows to Turkish assets threaten the stability of the exchange rate, especially in the context of increasing geopolitical risk. In the last 1-week period, TRY depreciated by 4.7% and became the most depreciated EM currency. In an environment where the geopolitical risk perception has stabilized the flow to EMs, it has been noted that the Turkish lira also underperformed the ruble. The high course of oil prices continues to put pressure on the Turkish lira.
At the current level, we will continue to monitor the trends in the FX-linked deposit product, which is centered on dollarization and financial stabilization. In this context, we would like to state that we have not yet received a signal of a return to orthodox policy from the Central Bank and the economy management. Therefore, we do not expect any changes in interest rates from the CBRT next week. The financial dollarization rate is at the level of 56.77% as of the week of March 4, we see a slight decrease from the rate that was 57.34% in the previous week. This rate was at the level of 54.8% in the same period of the previous year.
Kaynak Tera Yatırım
Hibya Haber Ajansı