The Russian economic crisis… Recently, there have been scenes in the world that will resemble the cold war environment. The situation that became clear with the war in Ukraine, which we have seen here for a long time, was that Russia's dream of reaching its borders during the former USSR period was reactivated.
The situation that Russia did not take into account, in the new world order, such movements could result in an economic disaster for its own country. Since everything in the global economy is interconnected, such movements can cause major crises, mass events, and changes in management. We see the signs that this situation may drag Russia into a major economic crisis with the effect of global demand.
Russia's risks… According to WTO data, approximately 71% of Russia's exports are energy (oil, natural gas) and mineral (platinum, palladium) products. At the same time, about 47% of Russia's exports go to the European Union. Narrowing Russia's supply channels would be a risky and completely wrong move in terms of price control and dependency. Russia needs to fix its balance with Europe or it will become a zero-sum game. Russia and Europe will suffer from this situation. At this point, the problem of the country's dependence on China arises, a situation that Russia does not want.
The possibility of the West to aggravate the sanctions and the risk that the Fed may affect all emerging economies negatively affect Russia.
Conclusion? It comes from Sun Tzu: “Excellence is not about fighting and winning every battle. The best strategy is to win without fighting”.
The US wants to get rid of Putin with the economic crisis without fighting Putin's Russia. Similar to Putin's after the 2014 Crimea issue, public support remains high within the framework of anti-Americanism. The embargoes are forcing Russia in terms of economic function, and the resistance of Ukraine in terms of military. Sanctions are also being advanced. Finally, the EU announced the 5th sanctions package and banned coal imports. A ban on oil and gas imports is also considered. Can Putin go with domestic pressure if economic difficulties increase? Opinion polls don't show it, and the financial facts are there. Russia is isolated and paralyzed from the financial world.
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