According to the data released from China this morning; There was a disappointing 2.5% year-on-year increase in retail sales in August. Industrial production also points to a low increase of 5.3%, driven by pressure from some commodity prices. The Delta Covid wave continues to stand out as a compelling factor, putting pressure on consumption and activity. In particular, some restrictions applied by China with a zero-tolerance policy in the fight against Covid are effective in this. It has to deal with the worst epidemic conditions since Covid-19 first spread in early 2020. This poses a downside risk to growth forecasts.
The highly contagious Delta variant, which formed an area of influence at the end of July and was controlled by certain measures until mid-August, caused the Beijing administration to increase measures in some areas. Under Beijing's "zero tolerance" policy, authorities had imposed travel restrictions and local quarantines within the country for most of the summer holidays. Vaccination rate and effectiveness are decisive in the degree of measures, but if we consider the 2022 Beijing Winter Olympics, which will start in February, complete freedom will probably not be in question. In Asian countries, unlike Western countries, restriction measures are more prominent in the fight against the virus. Europe and the US rely more on the effectiveness of the vaccine.
We talked about the effects of the difficulty in real estate production and sales, especially on Evergande. Stricter regulations on how real estate developers can use debt to expand their businesses have also made Evergrande's situation difficult. The company has issued a default warning. This situation may also have a slowing effect in terms of housing investments. Especially if we consider the effect of speculation on the real estate market… Considering the decline in automobile sales, the slowdown in factory production due to the difficulty in supplying raw materials, and the impact of Covid, a more cautious approach to growth dynamics will be in question.
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