While industrial production in Turkey increased by 13.8% in August compared to the same month of the previous year, according to calendar adjusted data; Seasonally and calendar adjusted industrial production increased by 5.4% compared to the previous month. According to unadjusted data, industrial production increased by 19.9% compared to the same period of the previous year. Our forecast was for industrial production to increase by 7% on an annual basis in August, according to adjusted data.
Along with the monthly increase in industrial production in August, the seasonal decline, which was out of trend in July, was completely corrected and the trend was again exceeded. It is necessary to evaluate the expectations in terms of growth positively. In particular, the increase and trend in the capital goods side is positive in terms of fixed capital formation, which is one of the most important determinants of GDP. In the rest of the year, especially with the recent increase in energy prices, the current effects on the general economic growth side may be balanced. Problems related to the global supply chain are a matter of concern regarding the sustainability of the increase in industrial production. Chip-related problems in the automotive industry affect the production line, and its reflection can be seen. Some of the global producers seem to have stopped production for a few days.
When we look at the details; Mining and quarrying decreased by 1.7% on a monthly basis and increased by 9.4% on an annual basis. While an increase of 6.3% was observed in the manufacturing industry on a monthly basis, there was a growth of 14.2% on an annual basis. In the electricity, gas and steam group, a contraction of 0.2% was observed on a monthly basis, while the annual growth was realized at the level of 9.4%. On a monthly basis, capital goods increased by 15.6%, intermediate goods by 4.6%, non-durable goods by 2.5%, energy by 0.4% and durable goods by 0.1%. Looking at the annual changes in the related items; capital goods increased by 20.5%, intermediate goods by 15.4%, non-durable consumer goods by 9.8%, energy by 9.3% and durable consumption goods by 8.3%.
We remain positive in terms of growth projections. We see the risk balance on the general consensus growth forecasts of around 9% per annum on the upside. The last quarters may show more normal growth rates due to the normalization of 2Q21 growth, the slowdown in production due to energy prices and supply chain, and perhaps a possible slowdown in tourism. In terms of the year in general, growth above the 9% levels predicted in the MTP and the general expectation of the market may be realized.
Kaynak Tera Yatırım-Enver Erkan
Hibya Haber Ajansı