Haberler

Fed balance sheet reduction strategy Monetary tightening, which includes different dynamics from the 2014 – 2017 model tapering period, must also include further shrinkage in terms of proactive inflation management.

CBRT: Monetary policy decision in the concept of lira volatility We do not expect a change in interest rates at the monetary policy meeting of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, which will be held tomorrow.

Turkey: November housing prices increases by 50,53% annually According to CBRT data; HPI, which increased by 50.5% in November, increased by 19.7% in real terms.

Transition to the digital money age in the monetary regime evolution The monetary regime has taken different forms throughout history. Digital money is also an announcement of the right step to be taken to adapt to the inevitable monetary evolution.

US: Bond yields price aggressive tightening Although the consensus regarding the first rate hike of the Central Bank is almost formed, there are also opinions that the generally accepted move may be more drastic.

Introduction to FOMC guidance Economic actors, especially US companies, are faced with the fastest rising cost inflation in decades.

Fed: 2021 Central Bank profit and Treasury transfer The Fed released preliminary unconfirmed financial information showing that it forecasts $107.8 billion in net income in 2021, of which $107.4 billion was remitted to the U.S. Trea

New economy perspective and monetary policy conventionality It is understood that in the new economic period, low lira interest rates will be adopted, and it is aimed to reduce inflation with price stability to be achieved through exports a

Inflation and long-term bond rates Before the Fed's rate hike, we watch the rise in long-term bond yields. With the Fed's view that this year, the base scenario, 3 rate hikes, is likely to be higher, the 10-year US

China: 4Q21 GDP grows 4% YoY In China, GDP grew by 4% in 4Q21 compared to the same period of the previous year; Although it was above the expected 3.3%, it remained below the growth performance of the previous

Fed monetary policy progress The point where the market drifted after the Fed announced the notes of its December meeting, shows that the March period will not be a subject of much discussion in the rate hike

US: Retail sales contract more than expected US retail sales fell 1.9% in December from the previous month.

CBRT Market Participants Survey: January 12-month CPI forecast is 25.37% In the CBRT January Market Participants Survey, the current year-end inflation expectation was 29.75%.

Turkey: Automobile SCT tax bases and price/inflation effect According to the Presidential decree published in the Official Gazette; The tax base limits have been increased for cars with an engine displacement of less than 1,600 cc and hybri

China: Some signs of cooling in inflation Data from China show a cooling in inflation in December, as compared to a broad retreat in price pressures and a higher base.

Turkey: C/A turns into deficit with weakening trade and tourism The current account balance in Turkey posted a deficit in November due to the lack of a significant increase in tourism revenues and the widening deficit in goods trade.

USA: Market and survey-based inflation expectations The December Consumer Expectations Survey shows that both short and medium-term inflation expectations remain unchanged.

Turkey: Corporates also benefit from the FX-based lira deposit measure According to the decree published in the Official Gazette, Turkish companies will be able to open lira accounts that protect against the depreciation of the currency.

Fed: Powell pledges to ensure that inflation will not persist in the economy Powell's speech, whose second term nomination will be held today at the Senate Banking Committee, was published on the Federal Reserve website.

US: The acceleration in inflation The December CPI, which will be announced in the middle of this week, is important in terms of rate hikes and balance sheet intervention, as we follow the Fed's aggressive behavior

US: Increase in yields, inflation and monetary tightening expectations While the headline figure is weak regarding the US labor market, the underlying details suggest that it is not.

US/NATO vs. Russia: Global and regional domination In the axis of Russia and Ukraine, it is useful to look at the conflict with the US and NATO through a little history, ideology and past analysis.

Turkey: Adjusted unemployment rate 11.2% in November The unemployment rate in Turkey in November, which was 13% in the same month of the previous year, decreased by 1.8 points to 11.2%.

Eurozone: Inflation in the testing ground for the ECB Consumer prices in the Eurozone continued to rise from the previous month, increasing by 5% in December; gem November data beat the market expectation of 4.9%, as well as 4.8%, whi

US: Nonfarm payrolls fall short of expectations in December Nonfarm payrolls in the US in December were announced as 199K, lower than expected 450K. Unemployment rate fell to 3.9%, better than expected 4.1% in market surveys.

Global: Kazakhstan chaos, geopolitical positioning and risk factors The protests, which started in Kazakhstan since January 2, due to energy consumption prices (gasoline, LPG) and the worsening economic situation, continue to increase.

US: ISM-S index falls more than expected In the US, ISM service dropped from 69.1 in November to 62 in December. This was lower than the expected 66.9 and was the lowest reading since January 2021.

US: Strengthening labor market, tight monetary policy The rate hike facts and timing indicated by the announced Fed minutes make the details of the employment report more important.

Analytical Perspective on PPI – CPI Pass-through Producer price index (PPI) is an index that measures the change in producer sales prices of total goods and services produced in a certain period of time.

China: Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership – Asia Pacific trade agreement China has formed a pact with 15 countries, including Japan and Australia, in a new Asia-Pacific trade agreement that began on Saturday (January 1).