Regional geopolitical crises… While the countries that have stopped buying gas from Russia have started to form a certain bloc, it is observed that many geopolitically prone regions are trying to maintain a balance between the Russia-China and the US counter-blocs. These situations also have an important place in terms of regional political developments. These balances cause some countries to choose places in order to benefit from both special dumpings in energy prices and great power balances in regional interests. The geopolitical choices of the countries have the possibility of triggering regional risks in terms of the potential to pave the way for domestic political turmoil.
South Asian balance, India-Pakistan… Since independence from British colonialism in 1947, India-Pakistan relations have been problematic. These two countries, which face many issues from regional territorial disputes to religious differences, tend to pose a security threat to each other with their nuclear and military power. In the Macro Perspective dated April 5, we touched upon India's stance in relations with Russia and China and talked about its geostrategic position both politically and geographically. India's adversary Pakistan is next. The country has been in a major political turmoil lately. Imran Khan, who has been Prime Minister since 2018, took the case to the higher court, blocking the likely successful no-confidence vote against him. He also intends to increase public support in the early elections with anti-American propaganda, saying that there is American interference in the no-confidence vote.
Khan is politically closer to the Russia-China bloc and the military, which has always determined the country's politics, takes a stance against the Prime Minister in diplomatically moving away from the United States. Khan recently made statements blaming the US for the situation in Afghanistan, did not condemn Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and met with Putin. Khan's early election will not only cause the country to become an ally of Russia, but also increase the possibility of a possible coup. The country is also waiting for the remaining payments of the IMF tranches, and the IMF is waiting for the new government to be formed for the remaining payments. IMF funding is crucial as the risk of default increases.
Conclusion? The political instability arising from the Ukraine war will not only set the stage for domestic and regional problems of many countries, but also cause them to choose a place in the Russia-China or the US-West camps in regional interests and territorial disputes. Of course, the most striking result is that the economic problems caused by the Russian crisis have fueled many economic problems, especially inflation, which are prone to becoming chronic. This creates political risks, especially in unstable countries that are prone to social events. As the purchasing power of the society decreases and access to basic needs becomes more difficult, it may become susceptible to such social explosions. For this reason, it is necessary to pay attention to countries whose history is full of political turmoil.
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