The unemployment rate in Turkey in January, which was 12.8% in the same month of the previous year, decreased by 1.4 points to 11.4%. When compared with the previous month, it is seen that the adjusted unemployment rate did not change. While the unemployment rate among the young population was 21.6%; The rate of idle labor force, which is a broadly defined measure of unemployment, rose from 22.8% to 22.9% compared to the previous month.
When we look at the comparable periods, January 2021 - January 2022, it is seen that there was an increase of 2.8 points in the labor force participation rate between the relevant periods, with adjusted data. The workforce, which was 31 million 513 thousand people in the similar period of 2021, became 33 million 769 thousand people in January 2022. The labor force participation rate increased from 49.8% to 52.6%. Looking at the seasonally adjusted data; While the employment rate increased by 3 points to 46.5% compared to the same period of the previous year, seasonally adjusted employment decreased by 43 thousand compared to the previous month.
When we look at the labor force trends in December and January, we can say that the most determining factor here is the determination of the minimum wage. The companies that make salary plans for the new year, due to the 50% increase in the minimum wage, reschedule the salaries and the determination of the budgets has largely extended towards the end of January. On the other hand, salary increases that are below the minimum wage increase or inflation in the private sector also affect the tendency to change jobs. Here, we may see the effect of rotation and resignation in the private sector, especially in February. While the pandemic conditions increase the rates of working from home, working standards, side benefits and salary conditions are effective in this period. When the war conditions are also added, the effects of similar factors on the operational profitability and fixed costs of the firm are determinative in factors such as labor, side benefits and salary conditions. Economic fluctuation and cost conditions are influential in firms' investment decisions and thus employment trends, and more macro predictability is required for positive conditions.
In terms of the sector, the positive trend here continues as the production line is active. We have seen significant movements in sectors related to service and production, especially in areas such as retail, food and textile after the economic opening. The trend after February and March will also include the situation of the Russia and Ukraine crisis in the assessment. Because seasonal effects in the tourism and agriculture sectors will come into play. The activity potentials of the relevant sectors, the need for workers and, accordingly, their employment creation potential will determine the course of the labor force in the spring and summer months. While the easing of the crisis will positively affect employment, the continuation of the war conditions may limit the contribution.
Kaynak Tera Yatırım
Hibya Haber Ajansı
